Rapid deterioration of water and pasture resources in Ethiopia’s lowlands: A comparative analysis of January 2025 and January 2026 conditions using a digital early warning system

Pastoral and agro-pastoral systems in Ethiopia’s lowlands are increasingly exposed to climate variability and recurrent drought. This study analyzes changes in water and pasture availability between January 2025 and January 2026 using outputs from a rangeland monitoring system (ETH - Rangeland). Results showed deterioration in both waterpoint and pasture conditionsin January 2026 compared to January 2025. The number of seasonally dry and near-dry waterpoints doubled between January 2025 and January 2026, while pasture conditions transitioned from predominantly medium productivity to low and very low biomass levels, indicating a substantial decline in forage availability. These changes have severe implications for livestock productivity, food security, and conflict risks over natural resources. The findings demonstrate the value of operational early warning systems for anticipatory action and long-term resilience investments in Ethiopia’s pastoral regions.