Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Institute
cg.coverage.countryMorocco
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2MA
cg.coverage.regionNorthern Africa
cg.creator.identifierBROUZIYNE Youssef: 0000-0001-6710-9527
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH049879
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn2073-4441
cg.issue9
cg.journalWater
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.volume12
dc.contributor.authorBrouziyne, Youssef
dc.contributor.authorAbouabdillah, A.
dc.contributor.authorChehbouni, Abdelghani
dc.contributor.authorHanich, L.
dc.contributor.authorBergaoui, Karim
dc.contributor.authorMcDonnell, Rachael
dc.contributor.authorBenaabidate, L.
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-26T06:38:13Zen
dc.date.available2020-08-26T06:38:13Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/109073
dc.titleAssessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approachesen
dcterms.abstractUnderstanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from -45.6% to -76.7% under RCP4.5, and from -66.7% to -95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2020-08-19
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBrouziyne, Y.; Abouabdillah, A.; Chehbouni, A.; Hanich, L.; Bergaoui, Karim; McDonnell, Rachael; Benaabidate, L. 2020. Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches. Water, 12(9):2333. (Special issue: Modeling Global Change Impacts on Water Resources: Selected Papers from the 2019/2020 SWAT International Conferences) [doi: 10.3390/w12092333]en
dcterms.extent2333. (Special issue: Modeling Global Change Impacts on Water Resources: Selected Papers from the 2019/2020 SWAT International Conferences)
dcterms.issued2020-08-19
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherMDPI
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectdroughten
dcterms.subjectvulnerabilityen
dcterms.subjecthydrological factorsen
dcterms.subjectweather forecastingen
dcterms.subjectmodellingen
dcterms.subjectwater resourcesen
dcterms.subjectwatershedsen
dcterms.subjectwater yielden
dcterms.subjectmeteorological factorsen
dcterms.subjectrisk managementen
dcterms.subjectprecipitationen
dcterms.subjectrainen
dcterms.subjecttemperatureen
dcterms.subjectland useen
dcterms.subjectrunoffen
dcterms.subjectevapotranspirationen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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