From Income and Food Price Shocks to Food [In]security in Kenya: A Simulated Scenario Analysis

BACKGROUND: The interplay between the COVID-19 pandemic, below average harvests, and the Russia-Ukraine war jeopardized households’ resilience to negative shocks while simultaneously heightening food insecurity. Negative disruptions of global food supply chains, amidst general declines in agricultural output in Kenya, have contributed to food inflation. As average incomes declined during the pandemic, purchasing power among poor and moderately-rich households declined. Yet, the extent to which these food price and income shocks affected Kenya’s food poverty is under-researched. It is against this backdrop that this blog analyzes how rural and urban food poverty are joint affected by income and price shocks using the new Food Security Simulator Kenya (hereafter, the FSSK) developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners.