Access to information, price expectations and welfare: the role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Bank
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
cg.contributor.crpMaize
cg.contributor.crpRoots, Tubers and Bananas
cg.contributor.donorFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ET
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierTesfamicheal Wossen: 0000-0003-3793-7078
cg.howPublishedFormally Published
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.04.017
cg.identifier.iitathemeSOCIAL SCIENCE & AGRICUSINESS
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn0040-1625
cg.journalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.iitaAGRIBUSINESS
cg.subject.iitaSMALLHOLDER FARMERS
cg.volume145
dc.contributor.authorHaile, M.G.
dc.contributor.authorAssfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal
dc.contributor.authorKalkuhl, M.
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-23T09:17:12Zen
dc.date.available2019-08-23T09:17:12Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/103389
dc.titleAccess to information, price expectations and welfare: the role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopiaen
dcterms.abstractUsing household survey data from rural Ethiopia, this study explores the role of mobile telephony in smallholder farmers' price expectation formations. The empirical findings suggest that farmers who own mobile phones and who reside closer to markets make smaller price forecasting errors. The beneficial effect of mobile phones is stronger for households that reside farther away from grain markets, indicating that mobile telephony provides information that at least partially compensates location-disadvantaged farmers. Holding all else constant, mobile phone ownership is associated with about a 30% decrease in the conditional mean of a smallholder's price prediction error, whereas an additional kilometer from nearby grain markets reduces the expected prediction error by about 10%. The results are robust across different econometric estimators as well as the use of alternative measurements of price forecasting error. Our simulation analysis shows that accurate information about grain price developments could save a significant welfare loss for smallholders. Depending on their income levels, the analysis hints that smallholder farmers would be willing to pay between 7% and 20% of their income to improve the price signal, in other words, to avoid uncertainty on producer prices. Our work emphasizes an alternative way to deal with price volatility and improve farmers' welfare that focuses on improving access to information rather than reducing volatility per se.en
dcterms.accessRightsLimited Access
dcterms.audienceScientists
dcterms.bibliographicCitationHaile, M. G., Assfaw Wossen, T. & Kalkuhl, M. (2019). Access to information, price expectations and welfare: the role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 145, 82-92.en
dcterms.extent82-92
dcterms.issued2019-08
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherElsevier
dcterms.subjectpricesen
dcterms.subjectforecastingen
dcterms.subjectsmallholdersen
dcterms.subjectfarmersen
dcterms.subjectmarket researchen
dcterms.subjectcommunication technologyen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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