Community-level impacts of AIDS-related mortality: Panel survey evidence from Zambia

In communities hit hard by HIV and AIDS, households not directly incurring a death may nevertheless be affected by taking in orphans, losing access to resources owned by kin-related afflicted households, or transferring resources to afflicted households. In addition, broader effects of high mortality rates on communities’ economic and social structures are likely. To date, relatively little quantitative research has been devoted to examining community “resilience,” that is, the factors explaining why some communities appear better able than others to withstand the impacts of AIDS-related mortality despite suffering similar adult mortality rates (AMRs). This study measures the effects of prime age (PA) AMRs on community resilience using a set of community level indicators—changes in area of land under cultivation, crop output, and per capita income.

These findings should be important for governments and development agencies, especially in southern Africa, where HIV prevalence rates are the highest in the world and where the full impacts of the disease remain largely speculative.